The Middle East conflict has entered a new and more unsettling phase. After US-Iran peace talks collapsed in Islamabad last weekend, President Trump announced on Sunday that the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping channels, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes each day.

Oil prices, which had briefly pulled back in March on ceasefire hopes, are back above US$100 a barrel. Diesel has surged past $3 a litre again despite the federal government’s fuel excise cut. At the same time, the cost of getting to a GP has quietly become a real issue for many Australians, particularly those outside major cities.

None of this is happening in isolation. With the May Federal Budget just weeks away, the government is under pressure to help households manage rising costs. The Prime Minister signalled this week that the Budget will include both NDIS reform and changes to property investor tax arrangements, two issues that have been circling for years.

For most investors and retirees, the temptation in moments like this is to look at what is happening in the world and wonder whether a different set of decisions might offer protection. The honest answer is that no strategy is immune to a supply shock of this kind. What a well-built plan does is reduce the impact of short-term volatility on long-term outcomes, and keep you positioned for the recovery that follows.

The ASX has held reasonably well this week, sitting above 8,900 points. Energy stocks have surged as oil prices rise, a reminder that markets do not fall uniformly, and that diversification does its job. The big banks and miners are mixed. Gold, which had run hard in recent months to above US$4,600 an ounce, has pulled back slightly.

The RBA’s next meeting is in May, the same week as the federal Budget. The board will be weighing persistent inflation, still above target, against the risk that rising energy costs and global uncertainty slow the economy on their own. That tension makes the May decision genuinely difficult to read, and most economists are divided.

What this means for you is fairly straightforward. Energy and petrol costs are rising, which adds pressure to household budgets. If your mortgage is fixed and due to roll off soon, or if you have a variable rate loan, now is a good time to check that your cash flow can absorb any further movement. If the Budget brings relief measures, those will help, but the timing and form are uncertain.

Your investment portfolio, if it is diversified and appropriately structured for your stage of life, is designed to handle exactly this kind of period. Short-term discomfort is built into the long-term return. The decisions that matter most are the ones made before conditions get uncomfortable, not the ones made in reaction to headlines.

If anything in the current environment is prompting questions about your plan, reach out. That is what we are here for.

Five things that matter this week

On Sunday 12 April, President Trump announced the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz after US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed. About a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the strait each day. Oil jumped back above US$103 a barrel, reversing a brief fall following earlier ceasefire hopes.

Despite the federal government’s fuel excise cut, the average price of diesel is back above $3 a litre. Around 30% of passenger vehicles run on diesel, and virtually all freight transport does. Industry groups are warning of price rises flowing through to everyday goods.

Prime Minister Albanese confirmed this week that the May Budget will include changes to investor property tax arrangements and significant NDIS reform. No detail on CGT discount changes yet, but the signals are firming. Budget night is expected in the first week of May.

The ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,961 and opened Monday around 8,910-8,930. Energy stocks were the standout performers, with Beach Energy and Karoon up more than 6% on oil price gains. Big banks and iron ore miners were mixed. Gold miners pulled back as the spot gold price fell to around US$4,670/oz.

Superannuation contribution caps and key thresholds are indexed to wages and change each financial year. From 1 July 2026, several key limits are set to increase. This affects how much you can contribute concessionally, and what counts toward the transfer balance cap. Firstlinks published a detailed breakdown this edition.

If anything in this update has raised a question about your own situation, please do not hesitate to get in touch. That is exactly what we are here for.

This update is general in nature and is not personal advice. For guidance that fits your situation, please speak with your HFI adviser. You may also need specialist legal or tax advice.

If you would like to review your super, investment mix, lending strategy or personal insurance settings in light of these developments, please contact us. We are here to help you plan with confidence.